UPDATE: Mayweather vs. Pacquiao to Gross $397,452,500.00

Floyd Mayweather vs. Oscar De La Hoya holds the record for pay-per-view buys, at 2.4 million. Floyd Mayweather vs. Canelo Alvarez holds the all-time PPV revenue record at $150 million. Both records are surely toast after this bout – but by how much?

Matt Hamilton’s Estimate

Sponsorship $2,000,000.00*

Sky Sports

Sky Sports are the runaway favorites to land the UK TV rights in the face of anemic competition from other broadcasters. Logo courtesy of BSKYB.

International TV rights $32,390,000.00

{United Kingdom £8,000,000.00 (estimate) which is $12,390,000.00 +

Rest of the World $20,000,000.00}

Ticket sales 16,800 * $4,111 (on an average resale value of $10,973.14) = $74,000,000.00

PPV Revenue  3,175,000 * $92.50μ = $289,062,500.00

∑ Total Revenue $397,452,500.00

*Note that much effective sponsorship is done in the form of trade exchange – eg. a beer company might provide marketing at liquor stores for the bout – to the tune of many millions of dollars; which of course benefit the final PPV number but are not cash-sponsorship upfront as such. 

µ HD version of Mayweather vs. Pacquiao will cost around $100. The standard version is expected to cost $89.95. 

MGM is looking at $74 million in ticket sales. Floyd Mayweather vs. Canelo Alvarez also holds the all-time gate record of a little more than $20 million.

Reasons Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Could Surpass Financial Expectations:

  • Casual sports fan uptake of this relatively rare cross over mainstream boxing event. Mayweather is followed at the highest rate in the urban market — a market segment that previously didn’t buy pay-per-view at any staggering rate.
  • The protracted build up, anticipation & speculation over this bout between 2009 & 2015.
  • Bidding wars within other countries for international broadcasting rights as the hysteria around the event builds.

Reasons Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Could Fail to  Meet Financial Expectations:

  • cinco-de-mayoMexican-Americans MIGHT to even a marginal degree abstain from the PPV purchase on the basis of the hijacking of the Cinco de Mayo festival by two non-Mexican/Mexican-American fighters. Whilst many many Mexican-Americans will buy this telecast – as the largest single demographic in the PPV buying universe even a 10% contraction on the above basis could sway the numbers downward – perhaps below the 3,000,000 level.
  • The Mexicans account for 60%** of the PPV buys,” Top Rank CEO Bob Arum. The most lucrative rivalries still consist of those with ethnic, and sometimes nationalistic, undertones: Mexico vs Puerto Rico, UK vs. the US, and yes White vs. Black. Mayweather vs. Pacquiao offers no such overtone – beyond America vs. the World.

** A limited sample poll on a major boxing forum indicated that the loose ethnic make up of those who bought the PPV for Mayweather vs. Marquez was:

White 29%
Black 10%
Hispanic/Latino 50%
Asian 5%
Native American 2%
Other/mixed 3%

caneloNeither Mr. Mayweather, nor Mr. Pacquiao, nor Mr. Cotto is Mexican. Cotto is Hispanic, but not Mexican, the only Mexican in the group is Canelo Alvarez, who is a big attraction among the Mexican people.Bob Arum

Canelo Alvarez gave me my marching orders, and that is fighting in May of next year [2015] and in September of next year [2015]. So, as his promoter, I have to do whatever I can to make that happen for him.” Oscar De La Hoya

Obviously, those two dates are very important. They’re Mexican dates. I want to recoup that. I want to recuperate those dates and take them back to the Mexican people. There should always be a Mexican fighting on those dates…I’ve always wanted to fight on Cinco De Mayo and on Sept. 16. With me being a Mexican National, those are the dates that I’ve always celebrated and the dates that my countrymen have celebrated. So I’m excited that I can now finally fulfill my dreams of continuing that tradition that many great fighters laid out. That plan and that tradition is to fight on May 5 and in September. So I’m excited to give the fans what they want to see.” Canelo Alvarez

 

Mayweather on Cinco De Mayo Weekends:

May 5, 2007 Floyd Mayweather vs. Oscar De La Hoya 2,400,000 PPV Buys [Mexican-American]

May 1, 2010 Floyd Mayweather vs. Shane Mosley 1,400,000 PPV Buys [American]

May 5, 2012 Floyd Mayweather vs. Miguel Cotto 1,500,000 PPV Buys [Puerto Rican]

May 4, 2013 Floyd Mayweather vs. Robert Guerrero 1,000,000 PPV Buys [Mexican-American]

May 3, 2014 Floyd Mayweather vs. Marcos Maidana 900,000 PPV Buys [Argentine]

 

Mayweather has earned $860 million in PPV revenue from 14.2 million buys & $420 million in career earnings.

Pacquiao has earned $755 million on 13.6 million buys & $335 million, including endorsements, in career earnings.

 

MGM Grand

16,800 paying customers are the maximum the MGM Grand can host.